Big Weekend Could Decide Alot

As we come to the last week of the regular season, its as good a time as any to take a look at what’s at stake this weekend. UNH and BC have both wrapped up home ice for the first round (and second if they get there). Maine needs to either win or tie once to get their first round series in Orono. There is a huge logjam after Maine in the standings. Lowell, BU, or Northeastern could possibly grab the last home ice spot. How, you ask? Let’s take a look at each team and where they can end up in the race for home ice.

UNH – can finish 1 or 2. If they win one game this weekend with BC, they are the champs.

BC – can finish 1 or 2. They are currently 3 points behind UNH and can win the league title with a sweep of the Wildcats. Lose or tie once and they are cemented in second by virtue of their 2-1 record over Maine this year.

Maine – with one win they lock up home ice. They can finish as high as third or as low as fifth.

Lowell – can lock up home ice with a sweep of Vermont at home. If they do that they get #4. They can still grab #3 if they sweep and Maine loses both games to UMass. They can also get #4 if they win one and BU loses one.

BU – can get home ice if they sweep Northeastern and Lowell loses or ties Vermont once. However, if they sweep NU AND Vermont sweeps Lowell, Vermont can actually steal that last spot, as UVM owns the series over BU 2-1.

All the other teams, as far as I can figure out, cannot get into the top 4. Northeastern comes close, but a sweep of BU and a UVM sweep gives the four spot to UVM since NU lost to them already.

Since Hockey East has been so even this year, let’s assume everyone splits. This would give us:

1 UNH

2 BC

3 Maine

4 Lowell

5 Northeastern

6 Vermont

7 BU

8 Merrimack

More realistically, there will be some sweep or ties in there. Providence is bad, so I would assume that with Merrimack fighting for that last spot with UMass, they get at least 3 points out of this. BC gets a tie Friday night and with the league already wrapped up, UNH loses Saturday. Everyone else splits. That would give us the same results.

BU is paying for the crappy play early on. BC would more than likely draw BU in the first round, at home. Overall, the season series is tied 2-2, with BC losing at home and at Fenway. Would be interesting, to say the least.

The bottom line is that a lot can happen this weekend that can screw this up. Northeastern could sweep BU and knock the Terriers out of the playoffs completely if the chips fell the right way. This is going to make for a great weekend of hockey.